报告题目：Optimal pest regulation tactics for a stochastic process models with impulsive controls using regression analysis

----------------Taking cotton aphids as an example

报告时间：2019年5月15日15:00

报告地点：科学会堂A710

报告摘要：Aphids, the sap-sucking insects, often feeding in clusters on new plant growth, have

resulted in large amounts of resources and efforts being spent attempting to control their activities. Taking cotton aphids as an example, this paper presents optimal control problems governed by stochastic models with impulsive interferences. Differing from the moment closure equation methods which are computationally intractable when the model contains excessive species, a new computational approach is employed to solve this problem. The key of the approach is to establish a functional relationship between the control variables involving the releasing rates of sterile insects and the spraying rates of pesticide and corresponding states on aphids and sterile aphids. Then the log-linear regression model is proposed to link the control variables with the moments (including the mean and variance) of states. Using training sample simulated from Gillespie algorithm, the regression coefficients for constraints and the objective function are estimated by least squares method. Simulation shows the error of the prediction of

this model is relatively low and control results based on regression model are superior to the method based on the moment closure equations in terms of the control cost. Finally, the relative impacts of the prices and area of the field on optimal tactics are explored.

报告人简介：

裴永珍，理学博士，天津工业大学教授，数学科学学院副经理，博士生导师。从事非线性混杂动力系统、生物数学、生物信息以及数据处理技术的理论研究。发表论文100余篇，被SCI检索60余篇。近年来，主持国家自然科学基金2项，主持完成横向课题3项。入选“天津市高校学科领军人才培养计划。” 担任国家自然科学基金评审专家,美国《数学评论》应邀评论员，中国生物数学学会常务理事，天津市数据科学与技术学会副理事长。